OT-My younger siste is in Ecuador. Bad timing

[Jason_W]

I don't know if you guys have been following the story, but it looks like there's a lot of potential for something bad to flare up between Venezuela, Columbia, and Ecuador.

My sis is set to fly home this weekend, so I hope that things hold off until next week (or more preferably don't erupt at all).

I'm a bit worried.

[cnjarvis]

Prayers sent

[Jason_W]

Prayers sent

Thanks.

[don Tomás]

Yes - prayers up for sis that she can get out of Dodge safely. No telling what Chavez is capable of...
Tom

[Jason_W]

Yes - prayers up for sis that she can get out of Dodge safely. No telling what Chavez is capable of...
Tom

Chavez and Ecuador are on the same side on this one. The contention is with Columbia bombing Rebel hideouts inside Ecuadorian and Venezuelan borders.

[Hobie]

She shouldn't wait until this weekend. Likely she won't listen to you, mine never did.

[Jason_W]

She shouldn't wait until this weekend. Likely she won't listen to you, mine never did.

She (unlike me) has the travelling bug. I'm making it a life goal to never go to an unstable third world country, and she actively seeks one out. Relief work is noble and all, but it doesn't make me worry less.

When she was deciding where to go, it was a choice between Ecuador and Thailand. I tried to steer her toward Thailand.

[AmBraCol]

I don't know if you guys have been following the story, but it looks like there's a lot of potential for something bad to flare up between Venezuela, Columbia, and Ecuador.

My sis is set to fly home this weekend, so I hope that things hold off until next week (or more preferably don't erupt at all).

I'm a bit worried.

Don't worry too much. The probability of her having problems is very low. If any trouble should start it will be on Colombia's eastern border, not her southern one. Ecuador is merely a puppet to Chavez' will. The initial reaction was positive - until Chavez put his oar in and stirred things up. Yes, I'm following the situation, living in the heart of coffee country as I do it'd be hard NOT to do so. Anyway, the anti-US/Colombia sentiment flows from Venezuela far more than from Ecuador.

Don't quit praying for her, but surely don't worry about it. The probability of being mugged or hurt in a traffic accident is far greater than being involved in a border war at this point.

[Jason_W]

I don't know if you guys have been following the story, but it looks like there's a lot of potential for something bad to flare up between Venezuela, Columbia, and Ecuador.

My sis is set to fly home this weekend, so I hope that things hold off until next week (or more preferably don't erupt at all).

I'm a bit worried.

Don't worry too much. The probability of her having problems is very low. If any trouble should start it will be on Colombia's eastern border, not her southern one. Ecuador is merely a puppet to Chavez' will. The initial reaction was positive - until Chavez put his oar in and stirred things up. Yes, I'm following the situation, living in the heart of coffee country as I do it'd be hard NOT to do so. Anyway, the anti-US/Colombia sentiment flows from Venezuela far more than from Ecuador.

Don't quit praying for her, but surely don't worry about it. The probability of being mugged or hurt in a traffic accident is far greater than being involved in a border war at this point.

Thanks. That's reassuring.

[Charles]

Having lived and worked in Ecuador for some years, I am very fond of the country and stay up to date with events there via the internet and El Comercio the largest daily newspaper in Quito.

Ecuador recently elected a left of center president named Correa who is very left of center and cozy with Chavez. However the people of Ecuador and the Miliatry tend to be on the conservative side. Correa bearly beat out a convervative pro-US economist name Naboa for the office. I suspect that Correa just bought a few more votes.

During my years down there, I went through two of these border popgun events and "war scares" with Peru.

The historic relationships with Colombia have been very good. The historic tension is with Peru to the South . This use of FARC of Ecuadorian territory as a safe haven is fairly new. It has come about because Colombia with US money and convert help have really put the pressure on FARC because of FARC's drug connection.

I really think this is just a bunch of posturing by Chavez and Correa. Chavez want to be seen as the new "Castro" of South America. He is in trouble at home, and this a red heering to divert attention from his own people and get them to rally around him.

I would doubt very much if anything comes of this, other than some Latin American political theater..but one never knows...somebody could make a mistep.

I am very familiar with that region near Pasto on the Ecuador/Colombia border as it used to be part of my parish.

[Ysabel Kid]

Yes - prayers up for sis that she can get out of Dodge safely. No telling what Chavez is capable of...
Tom

+1

[6pt-sika]

Having been married to a woman from Peru and later spending a fair amount of time with one from Columbia and another from Guayana .

My opinion of most South American countries is not the best .

I have a friend that is from Argentina . He is married to an american girl and in no hurry to return

[Griff]

Prayers up.

[AmBraCol]

Here's a little blurb from the Communist News Network on the issue...

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/ ... index.html

[Jason_W]

Here's a little blurb from the Communist News Network on the issue...

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/ ... index.html

That's good news.

I know I worry too much, but the state of the world being what it is, I don't like having my fmaily too far away.

[Last Spike]

Prayers sent and hoping your sister learns from this experience.

[Travis Morgan]

During a revolution is no time to buy your tickets from priceline.com!

[AmBraCol]

Perception is interesting. Folks tend to perceive South America as a horrible, dangerous place to live. I just took a look at the crime stats. She has a much greater chance of being mugged, raped or murdered in the good ol' US of A than she does in Ecuador. Ecuador's so far down the list for total crime per capita that the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany and the US all are WAY above Ecuador - which doesn't even make it into the top 60 nations in crime rates. So I'd not worry too much about her. Colombia and Ecuador are working things out. Chavez is still a blowhard and an idiot - doing his best to stir things up. But I believe cooler heads will prevail and his smoke screen of belligerence to cover up his complicity with the FARC will eventually blow over too. Anyway, she's far safer in Ecuador than she'd be in Washington, DC, New York, NY or Los Angeles, CA....

[Travis Morgan]

Yeah, but look at their legal and government system. They probably don't even have the internet, in most places outside major metro areas. The numbers you're talking about are just the crimes they report. You have to consider that they consider tourist dollars before they publish their findings.

[Charles]

No..No..Travs. The people of Ecuador are not inherently agressive. The biggest crime problem is "snatch and run" street crime by kids. There are very few other violent crimes. There is stealing if you don't keep something locked down. All in all, crime is very low in Ecuador. I lived there for four years.

Their goverment is generally some sort of democracy. They have their liberals and conservatives and leadership changes between the two sides. Bear in mind a South American liberal is a socialist. Sometimes, when the politicians run the country into the ground, the military steps in takes control until things get straight again, and they hand control back to the civilians until they run it into the ground again. These military coups are always bloodless. It involved a hundred or so guys and one creaky tank rolling up to the Presidential Palace and telling the President to take an exteneded vacation out of the country.

I know many in the Officer Corp of the Ecuadorian Military and as a rule, they are good folks. Ecuador has a long tradition of individual freedom and democracy and the Military see themselves as protectors of those freedoms even against the politicans.

It looks like the political theater down there is over. Chavez and Correa never had any intent to starting a war with Colombia.

The combined armed forces of both Ecuador and Venezuela are half that of Colombia. Factor in that Colombia is equipped and trained by the US and have state of the art stuff. Their troops are battle hardened by decades of jungle warfare against FARC and othere groups. Ecuador has not fought a war since 1942 and they are basicaly a parade army with antique equipment. I have no doubt the Ecuadorian Army would fight if called to do so, but I don't suspect things would go well for them.

I have been following this in the Ecuadorian press which has been straight up in it's reporting. They are not controled by the Goverment and have not been beating the war drum.

Anyway, it is over and hats off to Uribe who solved it by simply walking accross the room and shaking hand with the other guys. That is all it took and the other guys were darn glad to have this mess over...Colombia wold have kicked their butts. Colombia knew they held the trump card and never took the bait and mobilized their army to the borders.

Anyway the No. 1 FARC guy is now dead also. One of his own guys killed him for the $5,000,000 bounty. He turned his passport, laptop and hands over to the Colombian Goverment. I would guess this spell the beginning of the end for FARC which was already on the ropes.

"Alls well that ends well"

[AmBraCol]

Yeah, but look at their legal and government system. They probably don't even have the internet, in most places outside major metro areas. The numbers you're talking about are just the crimes they report. You have to consider that they consider tourist dollars before they publish their findings.

Look at our OWN legal and government system. The government in the US of A can now take your home, farm or other property and hand it over to a private entity so they can develop it and produce more taxes - and the Supreme Court said "That's Legal".

The US has a greater number of people incarcerated than any South American country - and yet there are parts of the US where I, as a white man, would be taking my life in my hands to walk through - especially if I were unarmed.

The current president of Ecuador is a leftist maroon - kind of like our own last president and any of the current crop of contenders for the position - but he was elected by the people, just like our own.

Methinks you've spent no time living outside the borders of the US as a private citizen. And if you HAVE, then you probably isolated yourself from the "unwashed masses" - like most United Statians I've seen oversees. I've spent most of my life in South America, living on the same level as the people with whom I work. While the system of government is different and their judicial system and laws are different from our own - so does the system of government and the judicial system vary from state to state in the US of A. Big deal. The US has their share of dirty politicians and activist judges. It would behoove us to get our own house in order before we point fingers at the rest of the world. It would also be good for private US citizens to get out in the world and see what's going on in other places. Like Uribe said in one of his speeches yesterday in the Dominican Republic "You are judging us by what we WERE and not by what we have become." And the same holds true of the US. We are no longer in a time in which most of our nation was governed by God's law - we have rejected Him and His principles and our society reflects that on many levels.

Some will read the above and conclude that I hate the US. This is not true. However, I am a realist when it comes to analyzing our current state of affairs. AND I have the means to compare the current state of affairs in the US with what we USED to be as well as to compare the US to other American states. The idea of South America as some vast, desolate, backwards area where folks don't even know enough to come in out of the rain is based on ignorance and poorly based notions of superiority. If we continue to ignore our neighbors to the south as living on the "wrong side of the tracks" (OK, river) and therefore somehow below us, we run the risk of one day waking up and finding that WE are now the ones who are living substandard. Colombia is an example of what can be done down here. I suspect that a greater percentage of people have access to broadband internet here than in the US. We also have a greater percentage of people utilizing cellular telephones than in the US - and we don't have to sign a two year contract to obtain one either, nor do we pay for incoming calls (how stupid is that? to charge you for someone else's
decision to call?).

Travis, I'd urge you to actually get out into the world and see how the rest of the world lives. You'll return to the US with a renewed gratefulness for the blessings that God Himself has heaped on our nation - and a renewed knowledge and respect for that which other people are accomplishing in other nations.

OK. Off soap box. Back to work. Y'all have a great day!

[AmBraCol]

Anyway the No. 1 FARC guy is now dead also. One of his own guys killed him for the $5,000,000 bounty. He turned his passport, laptop and hands over to the Colombian Goverment. I would guess this spell the beginning of the end for FARC which was already on the ropes.

"Alls well that ends well"

A slight correction, Charles. It wasn't "Numero 1", it WAS one of the top seven guys in FARC. It happened just north of us in Caldas. You can bet that Marulanda is sitting tight in Venezuela, doing his best to keep his guards fed and happy for fear of being the NEXT one. The reward for his head is quite high. As the news gets out as to what happened to Jaime Rios (I THINK that's what they called him), perhaps the lower down guys in FARC will start getting ideas. Things are not going well for them as they indulge in attempting to propagate worn out early 20th century ideologies. Hopefully some of them will start getting the idea that it's time to at last move into the 21st century.

I sat through a good portion of yesterday's "Grupo de Rio" meeting on TV. The Spanish language Communist News Network, the national channels and Colombia's own cable news system were all carrying that meeting exclusively. The way Uribe handled Correa and Chavez' baiting was admirable. I've renewed respect for Chavez, he's not as stupid as I thought he was. I'd never watched him when he was in the company of educated and informed people before. Note, I still don't care for him but at least I know he's a bit smarter (in an evil way) than I'd given him credit for. Correa? He moved down in my estimation. He is not much of a statesman at all. His handling of the situation showed a lack of maturity at best.

Anyway, I digress. We keep HOPING that we'll hear about Marulanda being toppled, but it hasn't happened yet...

[Charles]

Paul..

1) I sit corrected on the FARC guy. My source had it wrong.

2) I have never thought Chavez was stupid, but uncultured and far, far left in his views.

3) I also watched Correa and he handled the situation like a child. That will not pass unoticed by the Ecuadorian people. He won the election by a hair over Noboa, a strong US supporter and capitalist.

Ecuador's problem has always been it large uneducated, unsophisticated Indian population. They will vote for any darn fool who will promise them an extra helping of potatoes on their next meal. Democracy only works well, when you have an educated and informed electorate.

[AmBraCol]

Charles,

The early reports I heard were that it was Marulanda as well. But now it comes out that it was Rios, one that few have heard of in comparison with "Tiro Fijo", "Mono Jojoy" and "Raul Rayes".

Yes, the main problem down here (and in the US, and Brazil, Venezuela, etc, etc, etc) is an uneducated, naive electorate who vote themselves largess from the public coffers. That is the death knell for any democratic form of government...

Chavez knows to what crowd he's playing. And is the more dangerous for it. I was impressed with the way he handled himself yesterday. And with the way certain folks "cuddled up to" him, so to speak. He is a dangerous person, no doubt.