Putting the "22 Rimfire Ammo Shortage" Into Perspective

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Old No7
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Putting the "22 Rimfire Ammo Shortage" Into Perspective

Post by Old No7 »

OK, one more from the local gun club, but admittedly, this one isn't "humor" like the earlier ones this evening...

Not sure of the exact source of this, but if the logic holds as well as the math does, then it all sorta makes sense now...

Keep your powder dry! :wink:

Old No7

A couple weeks ago I read somewhere(can't recall where) an explanation for the 22 Rimfire Ammo Shortage

* US annual production of 22's is about 4.2 billion rounds

* That is 11.5 million rounds a day (7 days/week)

* Or 23,000 bricks (of 500 rounds) per day

* There are 80 million gun owners in US

* If 0.03% (not 3%,but .0003) of the gun owners decide today to buy one brick of 22's, that is 24,000 bricks -- or 1000 more than was produced

* So if 0.5% (.005) of the gun owners decide to buy 2 bricks today, that is almost 35 days production. That is FIVE WEEKS production consumed (i.e. purchased) in one day by just one half of one percent of US gun owners

* Now throw in all the panic buying, hoarding, and profiteering... And it's a wonder we have any ammo to buy at all.

* Sometimes we are our own worst enemy

...Do the math, it works...
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Mescalero
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Re: Putting the "22 Rimfire Ammo Shortage" Into Perspective

Post by Mescalero »

The problem is understandable,
so if you are on the board of directors of a rimfire producing ammo company;
how do you respond?
Pete44ru
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Re: Putting the "22 Rimfire Ammo Shortage" Into Perspective

Post by Pete44ru »

.

The only glitch to the math is:

How many of those 80 million "gun owners" actually own a .22, and not just some CF handgun, or shotgun ?

IMO, the number might just be a LOT less then 80,000,000.


.
Mescalero
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Re: Putting the "22 Rimfire Ammo Shortage" Into Perspective

Post by Mescalero »

I am still not sure what happened, we never had a supply problem before.
It may be a internet induced panic, likely I think.
The net has changed the way information is disseminated.
jnyork
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Re: Putting the "22 Rimfire Ammo Shortage" Into Perspective

Post by jnyork »

Mescalero wrote:I am still not sure what happened, we never had a supply problem before.
It may be a internet induced panic, likely I think.
The net has changed the way information is disseminated.
No doubt about it. If there is even a perceived shortage of a consumer item, everyone will rush right out and buy up all they can get their hands on, thus perpetuating and validating the shortage, which will continue as long as the demand exceeds the supply, and as long as idiots continue to pay scalper prices.
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ollogger
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Re: Putting the "22 Rimfire Ammo Shortage" Into Perspective

Post by ollogger »

all's I know if you put half of those bricks in a 50 box, you would have to see them show up
in the stores, I haven't seen one in years


ollogger
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Re: Putting the "22 Rimfire Ammo Shortage" Into Perspective

Post by Tycer »

Mescalero wrote:The problem is understandable,
so if you are on the board of directors of a rimfire producing ammo company;
how do you respond?
"This is the pits. Those center fire manufacturers are so darn lucky they can just buy primers and don't have to spin these stupid itty-bitty cases with gen-U-wine explosive in them. Ramp up mini centrifuges and apply for increased explosive permits when we know almost fer sure the market is going to slow back down? Na'sir, ain't gonna risk it."
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Mescalero
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Re: Putting the "22 Rimfire Ammo Shortage" Into Perspective

Post by Mescalero »

Tycer,
An interesting take on the posistion, may have some merit.
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Re: Putting the "22 Rimfire Ammo Shortage" Into Perspective

Post by Neumann »

I own several .22 rifles and handguns, which I like to shoot and let my grandchildren shoot. Once upon a time, I would buy a couple of boxes or a brick at the LGS before heading to the range. Now I can't count on finding anything, so when I come across a brick, I buy it. I suppose I have three bricks in reserve, not the good stuff (CCI) either. People who would buy bricks now buy a case. Those who bought by the case, get half a pallet. Ad infinitum.

The sad thing is, I shoot centerfire rather than .22, because I reload and can usually recover most of the brass, whereas .22s are are used once and gone. The good thing is my lever guns see a lot of use while the AR stays home. That probably won't change much when the ammunition situation improves.
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Re: Putting the "22 Rimfire Ammo Shortage" Into Perspective

Post by .45colt »

As I reported last spring, the Wife and I took a road trip into P.A. to a busy little sporting goods store. they had a rifle I wanted to look at and the Wife had a bad case of Cabin Fever.
this place had enough ammo to fill a 4 car garage to the roof, and the sales clerk said the 2nd floor is full and We have a trailer outside. I found the place on Gunbroker...they were selling ammo online...go figure. our local Mom&Pop sporting Goods said they have a deal to buy straight from the manufacture.
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Grizz
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Re: Putting the "22 Rimfire Ammo Shortage" Into Perspective

Post by Grizz »

my take is it's a great business opportunity for the manufacturer minded go-getter.

it's like the salmon business in the hay-day, unlimited market and plentiful resource.

fill 'er up
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Re: Putting the "22 Rimfire Ammo Shortage" Into Perspective

Post by harry »

Mescalero wrote:I am still not sure what happened, we never had a supply problem before.
It may be a internet induced panic, likely I think.
The net has changed the way information is disseminated.
Mescalero
I read somewhere that the production numbers for 22 lr was 1.5 million a day not 11.5.
Any way it seems that when we had the CF ammo shortages several years ago that in order to crank out more CF ammo everone was installing new production lines, working 24/7 just trying to keep up. All while everyone was buying more and more 22 rf to have somthing cheap to shoot and like you said 22 rf was everywhere, shelves were full of it and discount retailers were just about giving it away, so the .223 ammo and some pistol ammo were hard to find. 223 was 600.00 to 800.00 and then over 1000.00 a thousand rounds.
Well I saw 223 for under 300.00/1000 this weekend and soon people will start to change back over to the 223 AR's for plinking and the 22 lr will be back on the shelves. I did find 3 bricks of federal 22lr shipped for less than 90 bucks last Thursday.
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Mescalero
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Re: Putting the "22 Rimfire Ammo Shortage" Into Perspective

Post by Mescalero »

I hope you are right Harry.
It would be nice to see a return to sanity.
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Re: Putting the "22 Rimfire Ammo Shortage" Into Perspective

Post by harry »

CCI says they can produce 4 million a day, so guess my information was wrong. But all of that ammo does not stay in the US. Wonder how much they export?
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Re: Putting the "22 Rimfire Ammo Shortage" Into Perspective

Post by Mescalero »

Our canadian members do not seem to have the problem we are having.
BrentD

Re: Putting the "22 Rimfire Ammo Shortage" Into Perspective

Post by BrentD »

Well, the drought will not be entirely over until I have built my own hoard. I have been caught a bit flat-footed with respect to plinking ammo this time, though I have two years or a bit more of various target, practice and hunting rounds available. But when it comes to plinking junk, I have been caught napping, and I've grown tired of it. So, as ammo becomes available, I'll be stockpiling the cheaper stuff while maintaining at least a 2-yr stock of all my other varieties of .22rf.

In this mad, mad world, incremental madness is the only sane thing to do, and I'm at least one step behind the crowd.
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