Home prices are gonna do what?

[getitdone1]

What are some of your thoughts on the current housing market?

Are we near the bottom?

Will the United States and world economic events lead to even much lower housing prices?

In the past month or so I have spent a lot of time trying to decide what area I want to live in--in California-- and considering the bottom 1/2 of the state not just Southern CA. The difference in price for a house varies greatly from location to location. In Hemet I can buy a house for about 1/3 to 1/5 of what one would cost me closer to the ocean. One of true equal value, that is. Truly rediculous. I have seen "shacks" amongst 500,000 to 1 million plus homes that have an asking price of 7X or more of an equal house in Hemet or Riverside County. I would not pay 1/10 the asking price for some of these shacks. Of course, in this instance, the value is much more in the real estate the shack is located on than the house itself.

There are a lot of homes in the Hemet area that are now 1/3 or less of their asking price around 2006-2007. One I rather like is close to only 1/4 of it's price at the market top. I found that only the much higher populated Los Angeles county has more foreclosures and homes for sale than Riverside county. This is bound to be putting a lot of downward pressure on home values in Riverside county.

East of Modesto and south--Mariposa, Oakhurst and Auberry--there are some nice homes with 4-5 acres and an asking price that's reasonable. This is another area I'm considering. Being close to two of my favorite places--Yosemite and Sequoia Natl. Pks. is an added bonus. Being away from the traffic is another. A place where I can shoot without having to worry about the neighbors is yet another.

With the current economic mess, here and in other countries, it's hard to know what we'll be paying for ANYTHING in the next few years. In a worst case scenerio, where we'd have lots of rioting in the cities, I wouldn't want a house anywhere close.

If unemployment gets high enough we will be in for some bad times. Hopefully this "occupying thing" is not a lead-in to such riots.

One of the Rothchilds, of the famous banking family in Europe, said: "Buy when blood is running in the streets." Good advice. Hope it doesn't come to this--or even close.

Don

[FatJackDurham]

I still think they are high. Here in VT,the appraisers and the realtors are conspiring to not let the values drop.

The prices in CA are ridiculous. I'd rather live in NV and drive.

[AJMD429]

We have a house we rent out, and thought that with all the foreclosures we'd have an easy time getting decent rent to offset the mortgage, insurance, taxes, and maintenance. . .

So we thought.

From what I can tell, everyone and their brother is now buying houses, even more so than before. I have dozens of patients in the 20-24 year old range who are buying houses, with next to nothing down, and no credit history. I presume all the people moving out of the foreclosed homes must be doing the same, or jumping off bridges, or moving in with relatives - because they sure aren't jamming up the rental market...!

[Moondawg]

I think it al depends on whether you-know-who gets re elected. If he does, all bets are off. We could see the bottom drop out of everything. The great depression of the 21st century. We are currently flying in uncharted territory.

[GonnePhishin]

Personally from what I've read, I think that we still have another 20%-25% decline in housing values, and will then coast along the bottom for another 5 years at least.

[handirifle]

If it were me, I would at least wait till the election, like said above, if status quo continues, expect the bottom to be even lower than now.

Our government is the only ones that think the economy is improving. They are basing that, in a large part, on home sales, not new home sales either. As was mentioned, folks are grabbing them up in hopes to "rent till prices climb", so the gamble goes. When that money dries up, there will be no more snatching up unless the jobs come back and the prices of other goods come back to earth.

Not sure where you "have" to locate, but if the central coast area isn't too far north, it's worth a look. Excellent area to rasie kids, rural, conservative (once you get away from San Luis Obispo city) and affordable. There is a 3,000 sq ft log home down the road from me, with at least two barns, cross fenced for horses and livestock, that backs up to a stretch of BLM land, all on 80 acres that just closed for between 450k and 475k, not sure of exact price at the moment.

An actor from hollyweird just bought the ranch behind us, that was a foreclosure. It has over 300 acres, with a beautiful, inside and out, log home, a HUGE barn, approx 10,000sqft, and vinyards. He paid about 1.4 mil for his though. The Dr. that owned it before, had put over 150K into just the kitchen remodel. So prices are all over, but the big place behind me is not a "normal" place either.

[stretch]

Here in central Maine, my house is worth about what I paid for it
in 1994. We talked to a realtor - actually the very lady who sold
us the place - and she took an hour and explained it all to us.
No appreciation whatsoever. On the other hand, we didn't pay
way over market rate for it, either.

I see no positive change in the market for at least another 3 or
4 years, maybe longer. Nobody has any money, and won't until
we get real American manufacturing jobs back. Folks working at
Mitt Romney's Staples can't afford houses, college degrees for
their kids, or new cars. I think it's gonna be tough for awhile
yet.

-Stretch

[getitdone1]

Personally from what I've read, I think that we still have another 20%-25% decline in housing values, and will then coast along the bottom for another 5 years at least.

UncleBuck,

Sounds about right to me. As you know, markets bottom when they bottom. That's all we can know for sure.

Don

[O.S.O.K.]

IMHO:

We are going to experience a world-wide economic depression no matter what. The severity of this -the impact on this country will depend on who gets elected in Nov and what they do. But I honestly believe that they can only affect the level of hurt - not stop it all together.

You have only to look at those with the ability and power to do so - that are milking the markets for everything they can get out of them and investing in things that will retain value. They are taking easy money and buying gold, silver, land, coal futures, etc... this is shown by the high level of trading in "derivatives" which are just bets - insurance to mitigate investments - totally non-regulated.

The dollar is likely to be devalued severely and may very well be replaced with a new, gold-backed currency. Unemployment is likely to go to the mid 20's and stay there. We are likely to either default on our national debt or come very close and need to severely cut our spending - which means riots in the concentration areas of "dependents" - you know what those areas are.

I do not think that housing has hit the bottom yet. Not even close. You are best to be renting right now and have your assets in something that will hold its value no matter what happens. Gold and silver yes but also certain commodities, agricultural land and such...

I am in the middle of having a house built on some land - not the smartest move in terms of best value but we are getting into a permanent "bug out location" in the deal. And I am an optomostic type and see all kinds of ways we could make money off of the land if things got really tough.... people have to eat and we can grow food to sell at the farmer's market and make enough to keep up the payments and eat.

[getitdone1]

Getting off my subject here but I mentioned "The Rothchilds," a famous European banking family at the end of my first post above. I went to Wikipedia and it said they were the richest family--ever. They're still in business but, from what I read, to a lesser degree.

Maybe the schools should teach little Johnny something about banks--as well as other more important things. Doesn't little Johnny have a right to know enough to start his own bank? Or, at least understand the how that "game" is played?

Maybe one of you guys can tell me who said it but it went: "Why do you rob banks," and the infamous thief said, "Cause that's where all the money is." (Dillinger?)

The big banks have done a flip-flop and now, through their government bail-out, they robbed indirectly through the government. Can you imagine a banker or anyone saying" "If I have to TAKE a lot of money from the public to survive, I'll take it?" Of course we can--now.

Don

[tman]

Buyers market, if u got money to buy.

[tman]

Here in central Maine, my house is worth about what I paid for it
in 1994. We talked to a realtor - actually the very lady who sold
us the place - and she took an hour and explained it all to us.
No appreciation whatsoever. On the other hand, we didn't pay
way over market rate for it, either.

I see no positive change in the market for at least another 3 or
4 years, maybe longer. Nobody has any money, and won't until
we get real American manufacturing jobs back. Folks working at
Mitt Romney's Staples can't afford houses, college degrees for
their kids, or new cars. I think it's gonna be tough for awhile
yet.

-Stretch

Here in the RUST BELT, we've been waiting 30 years for manufacturing jobs to come back. They ain't comin back, no matter who gets elected.

[stretch]

Yeah, tman - I'm reminded of that line from Bruce Springsteen
concerning jobs leaving "....and they ain't comin' back..".

Being by nature an optimist - a cynical optimist I grant you -
(discuss THAT amongst yourselves!), I think that we might now
start to make some progress in that regard. It is SO obvious now
that the laws such as NAFTA have done so much to destroy what's left
of manufacturing in this country, that somebody in power is going
to look at the situation and realize that without good jobs for regular
people, even those higher up the food chain are eventually going to
feel the bite. The may be wishful thinkig, though. Greed and stupidity
combined can do amazing things....

But without a strong manufacturing base in this country, we're doomed to
second- or third-world status as a nation.

-Stretch

[Booger Bill]

This had to happen EVEN WITHOUT obama, and I am no fan of him! I lived in california 1965 to 2,000. I was conservative and pretty much missed out. It seemed that everyone got far in buying over their heads all that time. Yet it worked! With inflation their wages climbed and they kept doubeling and redoubleing on market value. The houses never were worth the insane sale prices! Now I would say they are going for about their real worth. If they do go down another 30 % as someone said, well, everybody in this country is also going to be in big trouble! Takeing that in consideration, I say BUY NOW!

[2ndovc]

Buyers market, if u got money to buy.

My Dad just picked up two more properties in Northern OH for @$ 6,000 each.
One will rent for close to $700 post rehab and the other he bought
for an old friend of his that recently lost his over mortgaged home.
He'll hold the title for the three to 3 1/2 years until he's paid back.
Darned nice thing to do I thought.

I wish I had a couple big bucks to play with. We looked at a 4 bed. ranch that at one time
sold for $150k. Asking price was $30,000!

The really cheap ones are getting snapped up pretty quickly around here.

I'm very happy mine's worth much more than I owe on it but I did most of the
work myself.

jb

[stretch]

We were actually hoping to move, but we didn't gain the
$50K in value we'd hoped over the last 18 years. We were
hoping to sell and buy something with more land for the same
money. I have no mortgage now and don't want one in this
economy, so i guess we'll stay put unless an unusually good
deal comes our way.

I was conservative and pretty much missed out.

Bill, I'm pretty much the same way. We'll end up getting screwed
just as badly as everybody else!

-Stretch

[tman]

You can get rid of the Union's, EPA, OHSA, Trial lawyers and repeal child labor laws. U can take it back to the 1890's and manufacturing is NEVER gonna come back. It's a zero sum game, somebody Overseas will always work for less. That's reallity folks

[O.S.O.K.]

It depends on how much it costs to ship stuff overseas.... we are the biggest market in the world... I think you are wrong. We can get our manufacturing back. Perhpas some protectionist tarrifs might be employed.... not good for trade to say the least but if we focus on selling to our own market, well that doesn't really matter too much then...

But back to the OP: the housing market depends on the level of demand and this depends on people having the wearwithall to get a loan in order to buy (or having the money to buy). The supply is also a factor obviously but we are sitting on a housing glut overall. When supply is greater than demand, prices must fall...

[tman]

Gotta have a Good paying job to secure a loan to buy a house. It's the same topic. Manufactoring phase built the market to afford new homes. Can't buy a house on Wallmart wages. Even the wallmarts will collapse without Manufacturing. Too few money changer jobs to support an economy. GREED IS GOOD

[olyinaz]

The market has picked up in Tucson and prices have stabilized. It's possible this is the bottom, but who knows what disaster lurks...

Oly

[Tycer]

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/sear ... ices/70367

If you want to know what part two said, PM me.

[Old Time Hunter]

Personally from what I've read, I think that we still have another 20%-25% decline in housing values, and will then coast along the bottom for another 5 years at least.

Pretty much spot on for the general populace. Then again, it might drop further if we need to acquire income parity to compete in the GLOBAL market place. After you take out the top 10% that control the bulk of the wealth in any country the remainder have to compete for substanence income based on being able to compete in a global market. Hence, once our labor costs (even professionals) race down to be competitive with Mexico, China, India, and the like...our home prices will stop dropping.