OT - World - Russia v Georgia - are you guys watching this?

[O.S.O.K.]

Russia is ramping up their invasion of Georgia and I just heard that we have a bunch of F-15's, F-22's and A-10's cocked and locked in nearby bases.... this is really heating up quickly!

[JReed]

WOW you have heard more then me. I have been to busy recruting to watch the news.

[reo]

Looks like we are about 24 hours from another invasion if the Russians don't back down a little. Georgia has around the 3rd largest troop strength in Iraq with the coalition. They are recalling those combat troops, trained and ready to go. This is a lot more serious than our posturing with Iran.

[O.S.O.K.]

I think we already flew them back to Georgia...?

I heard the US preparedness news from another forum where a member (board owner) had gotten the news from boots on the ground...

[Ysabel Kid]

How many of us think this is just too much like Hitler invading the Sudetenland in 1938? Will the west abandon Georgia like it did with Czechoslovakia? This is scary stuff. Putin wants to see the Soviet Bear rise again. He wants to show the former republics that the west will not protect them, so they better not align with us and NATO. Unfortunately, due to the UN, he will probably prove his point. My bet is they will take the rest of Georgia in the next month, long before the worthless pointy-headed bureaucrats at the UN can even decide on where to have a meeting to address the situation...

[reo]

I think if they take Georgia they are in for the guerilla warefare we have faced in Iraq, especially with the training their troops had in Iraq taking it every day. They are going to want to return the education, especially in their own country.

[O.S.O.K.]

Well, obamination isn't the POTUS yet.... we shall see. I don't think we can afford to stand by and let that go down. We are preparing as we type these replies...

[Andrew]

I have only heard a few things here and there on the radio but the whole situations looks scary to me. I couldn't raise my brother(Air Force) for a comment but he might get back with me. He usually knows enough to satisfy my couriosity.

[El Mac]

Will the west abandon Georgia like it did with Czechoslovakia?

In a word, yes.

[FWiedner]

Georgia bit off more than they could chew by initiating an agressive attack against Russia and is about the get the ***-whipping they asked for.

It is absolutlely NONE of the U.S.A.'s business.

[O.S.O.K.]

Georgia bit off more than they could chew by initiating an agressive attack against Russia and is about the get the butt-whipping they asked for.

It is absolutlely NONE of the U.S.A.'s business.

It's my understanding that Georgia launched the attack against the province of South Ossetia - not Russia. They attacked Russian troops after they got involved.

Yes, they bit off more than they could handle with that move no doubt. But Russia has been working on this for some time and it was almost inevitable that the Georgians were going to have to confront them - or just capitulate.

And as far as it being the USA's business. Well, it depends on how you feel about the Ukraine, and all of the other former Soviet satellite nations that will fall under their control again....

Perhaps we need to slap Putin right now and put a stop to his delusions of grandeur.

[JohnnyReb]

Don't know if it that cut and dried.

Georgia attacked a break away province (South Ossetia) which was not recognized by any other country as an independent state.

Was it a stupid move before being a member of NATO or the EU?..... Definitely.

However, Russia is taking advantage of the situation to invade and conquer the sovereign nation of Georgia.

Georgia has been our friend in Iraq and is an ally for the oil pipeline running into Turkey.

I tend to back my friends when they make stupid mistakes (that is usually when they need a friend the most). Don't know if a true friend backs you only when it is easy or clear-cut....

[model55]

Putin has been busy rebuilding the Russian Military for some time.If you read Air Force Magazine and the like they will tell you that Russia has been rebuilding thier Bombers and building new ones including some Supersonic Bombers as well.Our Secratary Of Defense claims we have nothing to worry about from Russia and have no need for Supersonic Bombers.Who's side is he on?We are going to be repeating History if we don't pay attention to both the Russians and the Chinese.I'm not that much of a history person but I was talking to my Father about this,this afternoon and we both think this is just a beginning with Putin-very much like Hitler.

[Charles]

It looks like a real mess and I doubt if any of us has all of the facts and circumstances. Everybody involved is spinning the situation to suit their needs.

I have no fear that the US will get involved in a military way as we just don't have the where-with-all to take on Russia. Our military is worn down to a nub from an ill begotten war on a pee ant Arab country. Putin and others know that we are impotent are this time.

I have no doubt that our military are on a higher level of alert, but it will prove out just to be saber rattling and chest beating designed to send a message to the Rooskis... but it is a message they will ignore, because they know there is no substance behind it.

We have squandered our fine military on a fools errand.

[gundownunder]

You go pokin' a big bear with a blunt stick and your gonna get mauled, and theres no doubt Russia is a big bear and getting bigger.
I've been thinking for a long time that Putin would love to re-establish the former glory of the soviet union and no doubt his successor will want the same.
As for America getting involved, I dont think so, not without the UN and the UN aint got the dangling bits for a fight with Russia and then probably china and their other commie mates too.

Is it just me or does everyone else also get the feeling the whole worlds going to hell in a handbasket, and we're all gonna end up running out of bullets.

[Rusty]

As was already said... it's none of our business.

[gundownunder]

As was already said... it's none of our business.

but neither is Iraq, Afganistan, Kosovo or 9 out of 10 other wars that the US has been involved in, so thats not a valid excuse.

[GANJIRO]

From what I gather the ROOshians are PO'd at Georgia for considering joining NATO so used this as an excuse to teach Georgia a lesson.

Just out of curiosity Georgia versus Georgia, state versus republic which one is larger in land area, and population?

[FWiedner]

I guess it didn't have anything to do with Georgia murdering a platoon of Russian peacekeepers and trying to claim Ossetia as their own territory?

What would you say if the Mexican army crossed the border and shot a couple of dozen Border Patrol officers in Presidio, TX because they intend to claim it as Mexican territory. Heck they only speak spanish there anyway, so what would be the loss? Let's say that they claim they're upset because we've started to build a border fence.

Would the U.S. be justified in retaliating militarily to "teach them a lesson"?

[Hobie]

Georgia bit off more than they could chew by initiating an agressive attack against Russia and is about the get the butt-whipping they asked for.

It is absolutlely NONE of the U.S.A.'s business.

Georgia went into one of THEIR provinces, not Russia.

[Ysabel Kid]

I don't consider us the policeman of the world, but the continuity of a democratically-elected free country is the business of every other free country on the planet...

[FWiedner]

Georgia bit off more than they could chew by initiating an agressive attack against Russia and is about the get the butt-whipping they asked for.

It is absolutlely NONE of the U.S.A.'s business.

Georgia went into one of THEIR provinces, not Russia.

You usually know what of you speak, but isn't this territory in dispute, i.e. Russia still considers it their territory, and did not acknowledge a claim of independence?

Are you saying that it was already a recognized province of an independent Georgia?

[AmBraCol]

Georgia bit off more than they could chew by initiating an agressive attack against Russia and is about the get the butt-whipping they asked for.

It is absolutlely NONE of the U.S.A.'s business.

Georgia went into one of THEIR provinces, not Russia.

In other words, it's more like the US moving troops into Arizona or southern California, shooting a bunch of Mexican army uniformed guys who happened to "find themselves" on the wrong side of the border and then Mexico declaring war on the US for defending its territory? I admit my knowledge of European and Asian geography, history, etc is quite shaky...

[Old Time Hunter]

How many of us think this is just too much like Hitler invading the Sudetenland in 1938? Will the west abandon Georgia like it did with Czechoslovakia? This is scary stuff. Putin wants to see the Soviet Bear rise again. He wants to show the former republics that the west will not protect them, so they better not align with us and NATO. Unfortunately, due to the UN, he will probably prove his point. My bet is they will take the rest of Georgia in the next month, long before the worthless pointy-headed bureaucrats at the UN can even decide on where to have a meeting to address the situation...

This is it in a nut shell! That and Russia wants to get rid of all western influences in the Caucus. Unfortunately we are like a whipped, worn out heavy weight prize fighter with not an ounce of strength and courage to stop it....lets' go for "peace in our time" suffice...history has a way of repeating it self.

[Old Ironsights]

Georgia needs more Hillbillies... Scare them rooskies ta death.

[rjohns94]

Russia halted their advance today.

[O.S.O.K.]

To those that think that Iraq is a waste of time and that this situation is non of our business I say that there were many at the time that thought the nazi advance in Eruope was non of our business as well.

In retrospect, it is obvious that Germany would have succeeded in conquering all of Europe and probably Russia as well had we not become involved. And then we would have been faced with a horrible enemy that would probably have developed the atomic bomb before us - not to mention fully developed all of the high tech military hardware that they had invented - like the jet fighter for example. They would then be a very real "our business".

I tend to look at Iraq in a "macro" way. The long-term ramifications of a free democracy being established right smack dab in the middle of the region. It is actually the "cheapest" spend in order to accomplish the "almost impossible" in the region. This is my view.

And the sequence of events and the situation in Georgia is this: The Ossentians are renegade province that is part of a recognized nation. The Russians have been doing everything that they can to entice this province to revolt and break away from Georgia - including accepting their visas as Russian and giving aid, etc. Putin wants to regain control of the former satellite nations of the USSR. If you are "up" on what he's said and what he's done - you would know this as a fact.

A good analogy would be Russia, China, North and South Korea. Was it right for the US to come to Korea's aid? I think so.

You can have whatever opinion about that you want being this is a free country My personal feelings are that we exist in a global economy and want to play in a global way, so we must defend our interests... globally.

If we want to become isolationists and only play globally in an economic way - we can, but not for long as China, Russia, Iran, etc. will assert themselves militarily and cut off our manhood so to speak.

To use a schoolyard analogy, we can't ignore bullies and hope they will go away. The bullies must be delt with or they will rule the playground. There are no teachers to keep them in line in the world.

That's the way I see it. And frankly, I don't understand how anybody can't see this...

Sorry if I'm insulting anyone with this reply, I just feel compelled to assert my free speach as well

[O.S.O.K.]

And one more thing: why does everybody keep saying that our military is "stretched to its limit?" I don't see it...

Add up all of the carriers, warships, airforce and ground troops stationed all around the world and available in the states and we could bring one hell of a force to bear on any situation that we needed to.

We don't have that much in Iraq and Afganistan really. Perhaps we want our adversaries to think we are stretched... I don't know...

IMHO, the real limiting factor is our political leadership - not Bush mind you but Pelosi and Reed. That and the GD media that keeps pumping out the leftist propoganda - like our military is stretched to the limit, the economy is in a recession, we can't get oil from new drilling until 10 years, obama is the savior, etc. - what a bunch of digested food that is.

Can't tell I'm a conservative Republican/Libertarian can you?

[pharmseller]

To those that think that Iraq is a waste of time and that this situation is non of our business I say that there were many at the time that thought the nazi advance in Eruope was non of our business as well.

In retrospect, it is obvious that Germany would have succeeded in conquering all of Europe and probably Russia as well had we not become involved. And then we would have been faced with a horrible enemy that would probably have developed the atomic bomb before us - not to mention fully developed all of the high tech military hardware that they had invented - like the jet fighter for example. They would then be a very real "our business".

I tend to look at Iraq in a "macro" way. The long-term ramifications of a free democracy being established right smack dab in the middle of the region. It is actually the "cheapest" spend in order to accomplish the "almost impossible" in the region. This is my view.

And the sequence of events and the situation in Georgia is this: The Ossentians are renegade province that is part of a recognized nation. The Russians have been doing everything that they can to entice this province to revolt and break away from Georgia - including accepting their visas as Russian and giving aid, etc. Putin wants to regain control of the former satellite nations of the USSR. If you are "up" on what he's said and what he's done - you would know this as a fact.

A good analogy would be Russia, China, North and South Korea. Was it right for the US to come to Korea's aid? I think so.

You can have whatever opinion about that you want being this is a free country My personal feelings are that we exist in a global economy and want to play in a global way, so we must defend our interests... globally.

If we want to become isolationists and only play globally in an economic way - we can, but not for long as China, Russia, Iran, etc. will assert themselves militarily and cut off our manhood so to speak.

To use a schoolyard analogy, we can't ignore bullies and hope they will go away. The bullies must be delt with or they will rule the playground. There are no teachers to keep them in line in the world.

That's the way I see it. And frankly, I don't understand how anybody can't see this...

Sorry if I'm insulting anyone with this reply, I just feel compelled to assert my free speach as well

OSOK,
I like your point of view. My concern is that the Iraqis don't seem too compelled to take an ownership stance in their own freedom. They've been a dictatorship, one way or another, for so long that I'm not sure they have what it takes to step up and assume control of themselves. Democracy is a heck of a lot of work. Thus far I'm not impressed with their work ethic in this regard.

Q

[Old Time Hunter]

Here's the deal, if the powers that be felt we were capable of a FULL scale confrontation with Russia over this Georgia thing, we would have gone to at least a Defcon status of mobilization. Kind of like pulling out your gun, knowing that it is large enough to make the perp realize his/her mistake and having them back down. Since it appears that we do not have sufficient ammo (perceived or otherwise) to load that gun, Putin, does not fear the US or any western combined force. He thinks we should be wearing skirts.

[O.S.O.K.]

I just read that the fighter/bombers have returned to base. They were actually in Georgia - and landed from the North (usually approach from the South) most likely to be seen better by the Russians... I guess they came along with the troop transports with the Georgians.

Pharmseller - I agree with you but I still think it's a good gamble - but it is a gamble... no doubt. Time will tell. I think it's fair to say that we've done much much better than was "expected" by those opposed to it. The surge worked for example. This is very much a glass half full vs glass half empty situation.

And we may not have taken the gun out but we did put our hand on it...

Putin would be smart not to confuse our good will with us being wooses.

[Old Ironsights]

[O.S.O.K.]

[RSY]

Below is the scoop from Stratfor in Austin. Always quality stuff:


The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power
August 12, 2008


Graphic for Geopolitical Intelligence Report

By George Friedman

The Russian invasion of Georgia has not changed the balance of power in Eurasia. It simply announced that the balance of power had already shifted. The United States has been absorbed in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as potential conflict with Iran and a destabilizing situation in Pakistan. It has no strategic ground forces in reserve and is in no position to intervene on the Russian periphery. This, as we have argued, has opened a window of opportunity for the Russians to reassert their influence in the former Soviet sphere. Moscow did not have to concern itself with the potential response of the United States or Europe; hence, the invasion did not shift the balance of power. The balance of power had already shifted, and it was up to the Russians when to make this public. They did that Aug. 8.

Let’s begin simply by reviewing the last few days.

On the night of Thursday, Aug. 7, forces of the Republic of Georgia drove across the border of South Ossetia, a secessionist region of Georgia that has functioned as an independent entity since the fall of the Soviet Union. The forces drove on to the capital, Tskhinvali, which is close to the border. Georgian forces got bogged down while trying to take the city. In spite of heavy fighting, they never fully secured the city, nor the rest of South Ossetia.

On the morning of Aug. 8, Russian forces entered South Ossetia, using armored and motorized infantry forces along with air power. South Ossetia was informally aligned with Russia, and Russia acted to prevent the region’s absorption by Georgia. Given the speed with which the Russians responded — within hours of the Georgian attack — the Russians were expecting the Georgian attack and were themselves at their jumping-off points. The counterattack was carefully planned and competently executed, and over the next 48 hours, the Russians succeeded in defeating the main Georgian force and forcing a retreat. By Sunday, Aug. 10, the Russians had consolidated their position in South Ossetia.


The Conflict in Georgia
(click image to enlarge)

On Monday, the Russians extended their offensive into Georgia proper, attacking on two axes. One was south from South Ossetia to the Georgian city of Gori. The other drive was from Abkhazia, another secessionist region of Georgia aligned with the Russians. This drive was designed to cut the road between the Georgian capital of Tbilisi and its ports. By this point, the Russians had bombed the military airfields at Marneuli and Vaziani and appeared to have disabled radars at the international airport in Tbilisi. These moves brought Russian forces to within 40 miles of the Georgian capital, while making outside reinforcement and resupply of Georgian forces extremely difficult should anyone wish to undertake it.
The Mystery Behind the Georgian Invasion

In this simple chronicle, there is something quite mysterious: Why did the Georgians choose to invade South Ossetia on Thursday night? There had been a great deal of shelling by the South Ossetians of Georgian villages for the previous three nights, but while possibly more intense than usual, artillery exchanges were routine. The Georgians might not have fought well, but they committed fairly substantial forces that must have taken at the very least several days to deploy and supply. Georgia’s move was deliberate.

The United States is Georgia’s closest ally. It maintained about 130 military advisers in Georgia, along with civilian advisers, contractors involved in all aspects of the Georgian government and people doing business in Georgia. It is inconceivable that the Americans were unaware of Georgia’s mobilization and intentions. It is also inconceivable that the Americans were unaware that the Russians had deployed substantial forces on the South Ossetian frontier. U.S. technical intelligence, from satellite imagery and signals intelligence to unmanned aerial vehicles, could not miss the fact that thousands of Russian troops were moving to forward positions. The Russians clearly knew the Georgians were ready to move. How could the United States not be aware of the Russians? Indeed, given the posture of Russian troops, how could intelligence analysts have missed the possibility that t he Russians had laid a trap, hoping for a Georgian invasion to justify its own counterattack?

It is very difficult to imagine that the Georgians launched their attack against U.S. wishes. The Georgians rely on the United States, and they were in no position to defy it. This leaves two possibilities. The first is a massive breakdown in intelligence, in which the United States either was unaware of the existence of Russian forces, or knew of the Russian forces but — along with the Georgians — miscalculated Russia’s intentions. The United States, along with other countries, has viewed Russia through the prism of the 1990s, when the Russian military was in shambles and the Russian government was paralyzed. The United States has not seen Russia make a decisive military move beyond its borders since the Afghan war of the 1970s-1980s. The Russians had systematically avoided such moves for years. The United States had assumed that the Russians would not risk the consequences of an invasion.

If this was the case, then it points to the central reality of this situation: The Russians had changed dramatically, along with the balance of power in the region. They welcomed the opportunity to drive home the new reality, which was that they could invade Georgia and the United States and Europe could not respond. As for risk, they did not view the invasion as risky. Militarily, there was no counter. Economically, Russia is an energy exporter doing quite well — indeed, the Europeans need Russian energy even more than the Russians need to sell it to them. Politically, as we shall see, the Americans needed the Russians more than the Russians needed the Americans. Moscow’s calculus was that this was the moment to strike. The Russians had been building up to it for months, as we have discussed, and they struck.
The Western Encirclement of Russia

To understand Russian thinking, we need to look at two events. The first is the Orange Revolution in Ukraine. From the U.S. and European point of view, the Orange Revolution represented a triumph of democracy and Western influence. From the Russian point of view, as Moscow made clear, the Orange Revolution was a CIA-funded intrusion into the internal affairs of Ukraine, designed to draw Ukraine into NATO and add to the encirclement of Russia. U.S. Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton had promised the Russians that NATO would not expand into the former Soviet Union empire.

That promise had already been broken in 1998 by NATO’s expansion to Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic — and again in the 2004 expansion, which absorbed not only the rest of the former Soviet satellites in what is now Central Europe, but also the three Baltic states, which had been components of the Soviet Union.
The Russian Periphery

The Russians had tolerated all that, but the discussion of including Ukraine in NATO represented a fundamental threat to Russia’s national security. It would have rendered Russia indefensible and threatened to destabilize the Russian Federation itself. When the United States went so far as to suggest that Georgia be included as well, bringing NATO deeper into the Caucasus, the Russian conclusion — publicly stated — was that the United States in particular intended to encircle and break Russia.

The second and lesser event was the decision by Europe and the United States to back Kosovo’s separation from Serbia. The Russians were friendly with Serbia, but the deeper issue for Russia was this: The principle of Europe since World War II was that, to prevent conflict, national borders would not be changed. If that principle were violated in Kosovo, other border shifts — including demands by various regions for independence from Russia — might follow. The Russians publicly and privately asked that Kosovo not be given formal independence, but instead continue its informal autonomy, which was the same thing in practical terms. Russia’s requests were ignored.

From the Ukrainian experience, the Russians became convinced that the United States was engaged in a plan of strategic encirclement and strangulation of Russia. From the Kosovo experience, they concluded that the United States and Europe were not prepared to consider Russian wishes even in fairly minor affairs. That was the breaking point. If Russian desires could not be accommodated even in a minor matter like this, then clearly Russia and the West were in conflict. For the Russians, as we said, the question was how to respond. Having declined to respond in Kosovo, the Russians decided to respond where they had all the cards: in South Ossetia.

Moscow had two motives, the lesser of which was as a tit-for-tat over Kosovo. If Kosovo could be declared independent under Western sponsorship, then South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the two breakaway regions of Georgia, could be declared independent under Russian sponsorship. Any objections from the United States and Europe would simply confirm their hypocrisy. This was important for internal Russian political reasons, but the second motive was far more important.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin once said that the fall of the Soviet Union was a geopolitical disaster. This didn’t mean that he wanted to retain the Soviet state; rather, it meant that the disintegration of the Soviet Union had created a situation in which Russian national security was threatened by Western interests. As an example, consider that during the Cold War, St. Petersburg was about 1,200 miles away from a NATO country. Today it is about 60 miles away from Estonia, a NATO member. The disintegration of the Soviet Union had left Russia surrounded by a group of countries hostile to Russian interests in various degrees and heavily influenced by the United States, Europe and, in some cases, China.
Resurrecting the Russian Sphere

Putin did not want to re-establish the Soviet Union, but he did want to re-establish the Russian sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union region. To accomplish that, he had to do two things. First, he had to re-establish the credibility of the Russian army as a fighting force, at least in the context of its region. Second, he had to establish that Western guarantees, including NATO membership, meant nothing in the face of Russian power. He did not want to confront NATO directly, but he did want to confront and defeat a power that was closely aligned with the United States, had U.S. support, aid and advisers and was widely seen as being under American protection. Georgia was the perfect choice.

By invading Georgia as Russia did (competently if not brilliantly), Putin re-established the credibility of the Russian army. But far more importantly, by doing this Putin revealed an open secret: While the United States is tied down in the Middle East, American guarantees have no value. This lesson is not for American consumption. It is something that, from the Russian point of view, the Ukrainians, the Balts and the Central Asians need to digest. Indeed, it is a lesson Putin wants to transmit to Poland and the Czech Republic as well. The United States wants to place ballistic missile defense installations in those countries, and the Russians want them to understand that allowing this to happen increases their risk, not their security.

The Russians knew the United States would denounce their attack. This actually plays into Russian hands. The more vocal senior leaders are, the greater the contrast with their inaction, and the Russians wanted to drive home the idea that American guarantees are empty talk.

The Russians also know something else that is of vital importance: For the United States, the Middle East is far more important than the Caucasus, and Iran is particularly important. The United States wants the Russians to participate in sanctions against Iran. Even more importantly, they do not want the Russians to sell weapons to Iran, particularly the highly effective S-300 air defense system. Georgia is a marginal issue to the United States; Iran is a central issue. The Russians are in a position to pose serious problems for the United States not only in Iran, but also with weapons sales to other countries, like Syria.

Therefore, the United States has a problem — it either must reorient its strategy away from the Middle East and toward the Caucasus, or it has to seriously limit its response to Georgia to avoid a Russian counter in Iran. Even if the United States had an appetite for another war in Georgia at this time, it would have to calculate the Russian response in Iran — and possibly in Afghanistan (even though Moscow’s interests there are currently aligned with those of Washington).

In other words, the Russians have backed the Americans into a corner. The Europeans, who for the most part lack expeditionary militaries and are dependent upon Russian energy exports, have even fewer options. If nothing else happens, the Russians will have demonstrated that they have resumed their role as a regional power. Russia is not a global power by any means, but a significant regional power with lots of nuclear weapons and an economy that isn’t all too shabby at the moment. It has also compelled every state on the Russian periphery to re-evaluate its position relative to Moscow. As for Georgia, the Russians appear ready to demand the resignation of President Mikhail Saakashvili. Militarily, that is their option. That is all they wanted to demonstrate, and they have demonstrated it.

The war in Georgia, therefore, is Russia’s public return to great power status. This is not something that just happened — it has been unfolding ever since Putin took power, and with growing intensity in the past five years. Part of it has to do with the increase of Russian power, but a great deal of it has to do with the fact that the Middle Eastern wars have left the United States off-balance and short on resources. As we have written, this conflict created a window of opportunity. The Russian goal is to use that window to assert a new reality throughout the region while the Americans are tied down elsewhere and dependent on the Russians. The war was far from a surprise; it has been building for months. But the geopolitical foundations of the war have been building since 1992. Russia has been an empire for centuries. The last 15 years or so were not the new reality, but simply an aberration that would be rectified. And now it is being rectified.

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[44LVR]

Putin, does not fear the US or any western combined force. He thinks we should be wearing skirts.

He's right. We SHOULD be wearing skirts. Look at the American peoples appetite for seeing things through to the finish. Most (looking at polls) would rather surrender. I would hate to have to rely on the USA as an Allie if I were Georgian or most any other State over there.

44

[bunklocoempire]

Thanks RSY, good read. Whole lotta spin with these events.

"Peace, commerce and honest friendship with all nations; entangling alliances with none."

"An alliance is like a chain. It is not made stronger by adding weak links to it. A great power like the United States gains no advantage and it loses prestige by offering, indeed peddling, its alliances to all and sundry. An alliance should be hard diplomatic currency, valuable and hard to get, and not inflationary paper from the mimeograph machine in the State Department."

If we choose fear over freedom we'll simply ignore these quotes. Keeping the world "safe for democracy" the way we've done it is just another form of welfare.

Bunkloco

[O.S.O.K.]

UPDATE -this ain't over by a long shot....

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/georgia_russia

------------------------

By CHRISTOPHER TORCHIA and MATTI FRIEDMAN, Associated Press Writers
9 minutes ago



OUTSIDE GORI, Georgia - Russian tanks rolled into the crossroads city of Gori on Wednesday then thrust deep into Georgian territory, violating the truce designed to end the six-day war that has uprooted 100,000 people and scarred the Georgian landscape.

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Georgian officials said Gori was looted and bombed by the Russians. An AP reporter later saw dozens of tanks and military vehicles leaving the city, roaring south.

Troops waved at journalists and one soldier jokingly shouted to a photographer: "Come with us, beauty, we're going to Tbilisi!"

To the west, Abkahzian separatist forces backed by Russian military might pushed out Georgian troops and even moved into Georgian territory, defiantly planting a flag.

"The border has been along this river for 1,000 years," separatist official Ruslan Kishmaria told AP on Wednesday. He said Georgia would have to accept the new border and taunted the retreating Georgian forces, saying they had received "American training in running away."

The developments came less than 12 hours after Georgia's president said he accepted a cease-fire plan brokered by France. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Tuesday that Russia was halting military action because Georgia had paid enough for its attack last Thursday on the pro-Russian breakaway province of South Ossetia.

"There is no cease-fire," Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili told CNN Wednesday. "We have a humanitarian disaster on our hands."

Saakashvili gambled on a surprise attack late Thursday to regain control over South Ossetia. Instead, Georgia suffered a punishing beating from Russian tanks and aircraft that has left the country with even less control over territory than before.

About 50 Russian tanks entered Gori on Wednesday morning, according to a top Georgian official, Alexander Lomaia. The city of 50,000 sits on Georgia's only significant east-west road about 15 miles south of South Ossetia, a separatist province where much of the fighting has taken place.

Russia's deputy chief of General Staff Col.-Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn insisted Wednesday that no tanks were in Gori. He said Russians went into the city to implement the truce with local Georgian officials but could not find any.

However, AP reporters and television crews saw several dozen Russian military trucks and armored vehicles driving first around in Gori, then speeding south. One reporter was told to retreat to the south because Russian shelling would soon begin.

Nogovitsyn also said sporadic clashes continued in South Ossetia where Georgian snipers fired sporadically on Russian troops who returned fire. "We must respond to provocations," he said.

Russia has handed out passports to most in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and stationed peacekeepers in the both regions since the early 1990s. Georgia wants the Russian peacekeepers out, but Medvedev insisted Tuesday they would stay.

In the west, Georgian troops acknowledged Wednesday they had completely pulled out of a small section of Abkhazia which they had controlled — a development that leaves the entire area in the hands of the Russian-backed separatists.

"This is Abkhazian land," one separatist told an AP reporter over the Inguri River, saying they were laying claim to historical Abkhazian territory and that Georgian troops left without challenging them. The fighters had moved across a thin slice of land dotted with Georgian villages.

Georgia insisted its troops were driven out by Russian forces. At first, Russia said that separatists had done the job, not Russian forces. Nogovitsyn said Wednesday that Russian peacekeepers had disarmed Georgian troops in Kodori — the same peacekeepers that Georgia wants withdrawn.

The effect was clear. Abkhazia was out of Georgian hands and it would take more than an EU peace plan to get it back in.

One of two separatists areas trying to leave Georgia for Russia, Abkhazia lies close to the heart of many Russians. It's Black Sea coast was a favorite vacation spot for the Soviet elite, and the province is just down the coast from Sochi, the Russian resort that will host the 2014 Olympics.

Lomaia said Russian troops also still held the western town of Zugdidi near Abkhazia, controlling the region's main highway. An AP reporter saw a convoy of 13 Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers in Zugdidi's outskirts on Wednesday.

"Russia has treacherously broken its word," Lomaia said.

The first U.N. relief flight arrived in Georgia on Tuesday to help the tens of thousands uprooted by six days of fighting. Thousands of Georgian refugees have streamed into Tbilisi, the capital, or the western Black Sea coast while thousands more South Ossetian refugees headed north to Russia. Those left behind in devastated regions of Georgia cowered in rat-infested cellars or wandered nearly deserted cities.

At a huge rally Tuesday night, Saakashvili said Russia's aim all along was not to gain control of the two disputed provinces but to "destroy" the smaller nation, a former Soviet state and current U.S. ally who wants to join NATO.

"They just don't want freedom, and that's why they want to stamp on Georgia and destroy it," he declared to thousands at a jam-packed square in Tbilisi.

He was joined by the leaders of five former Soviet bloc states — Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Ukraine — who also spoke out against Russian domination.

"Our neighbor thinks it can fight us. We are telling it no," said Polish President Lech Kaczynski.

In Brussels, Belgium, France sought support from its EU partners to deploy European peacekeeping monitors to the area. But French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said the move would only take place with the consent of both Russia and Georgia.

Russia accused Georgia of killing more than 2,000 people, mostly civilians, in South Ossetia. The claim couldn't be independently confirmed, but witnesses who fled the area over the weekend said hundreds had died.

Georgia said Wednesday that 175 Georgians had died in five days of air and ground attacks that left homes in smoldering ruins, including some killed Tuesday in a Russian bombing raid of Gori just hours before Medvedev declared fighting halted.

An AP reporter also saw heavy damage from a raid Tuesday in a Georgian village near Gori. Two men and a woman in Ruisi were killed and another five were wounded.

"I always hide in the basement," said one villager, the 70-year old Vakhtang Chkhekvadze as he pulled off a window frame blasted by an explosion. "But this time the explosion came so abruptly, I don't remember what happened afterward."

The Russia-Georgia dispute also reached the international courts, with the Georgian security council saying it had sued Russia for alleged ethnic cleansing. For his part, Medvedev reiterated accusations that Georgia had committed "genocide" in trying to reclaim South Ossetia.

At the Beijing Olympics, Georgian women rallied Wednesday to beat their Russian counterparts in beach volleyball, the first head-to-head clash of the two nations.

"Russia and Georgia are actually friends. People are friends," said the Georgian beach volleyball team leader, Levan Akhtulediani. "But you know, it's not, in the 21st century, to bomb a neighbor country, it's not a good idea."

"I say once again, its better to compete on the field rather than outside the field," he added.

___

Associated Press writers Christopher Torchia reported from Zugdidi, Georgia, and near the Kodori Gorge. Matti Friedman from outside Gori, Georgia; Misha Dzhindzhikhashvili from Tbilisi, Georgia. David Nowak in Tbilisi; Sergei Grits in Ruisi, Georgia; Douglas Birch in Tskhinvali, Georgia; Jim Heintz, Vladimir Isachenkov, Lynn Berry and Angela Charlton in Moscow; Pauline Jelinek and Lolita C. Baldor in Washington and John Heilprin at the United Nations contributed to this report.

-------------------------------------

[O.S.O.K.]

From RSY's post - 1st paragraph: "The Russian invasion of Georgia has not changed the balance of power in Eurasia. It simply announced that the balance of power had already shifted. The United States has been absorbed in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as potential conflict with Iran and a destabilizing situation in Pakistan. It has no strategic ground forces in reserve and is in no position to intervene on the Russian periphery."

I keep reading that we can't do anything because our ground forces are depleated, etc..

But nobody says a thing about naval, or air power.... we could take out those 50 Russian tanks that are rolling south in about 30 minutes with a few A-10s and some Apaches. That would be doing something...

The Georgians have ground forces - if we took out the russian armor and provided air cover, the Georgians could push back very hard - and I am sure would.

Defeatist propoganda IMHO. We "can't do this we can't do that"...

And then the rest of the article is predicated on the "fact" that the US (and he throws Eruope in too somehow) "can't" respond...

I don't agree with this analysis. I don't agree with the assertion that the US didn't "understand" the "new Russia" either - there is no way that we were'nt totally cognizant of the build up of forces on the Russian side...

That whole article is insulting to our military and CIA. It basically states that we are fools and couldn't see this coming.

Yeah, right.

That explains why we have advisors in Georgia - why all of the other sattalite nation's are banding together against Russia.

After all that, the author goes on to describe how clever Putin is... hmmm USA = bungling fools, Russia = clever planners.

We will just see how this all plays out...

ETA: Hmmm this might explain this article...

Stratfor Director of Intelligence Management Victor Gobayev (center) leads a morning editorial meeting at the global intelligence firm's Austin office.
Photo By Jana Birchum

Where do you supose Victor is from?

Here's an article on how they sent out 15000 emails predicting the fall of the Philipine President in 1999 and then - it happened... partly because these guys predicited it would! Read the article. I think this is another attempt by them to influence the situation...

http://www.austinchronicle.com/gyrobase ... id%3A82940

ETA - I checked in Dr. Gobayev and he spent 27 years in the FBI - all pre 1999 - don't know why he's casting the US in such a dim light....

[donw]

guys...we better darned well think it thru before going to war with russia!!! we've been fighting them since the end of WWII in one way or one place or another...(a good friend of mine went up against RUSSIAN troops in RUSSIAN uniforms in 'nam in the late sixties...showed me photos he took after the fight)

the russians are aching to flex their military might once again. the russians do not hesitate to kill any and everything that's in their way without remorse, without pity and with an effeciency that will curdle the blood of the hardest of our SEALS, rangers, paratroopers, soldiers and marines. they're tough, well trained, very technogically advanced and have LOTS of manpower they're not afraid to use.

they are NOT afraid to respond with force, to force, in aggression or defense and do what it takes to win...can we say the same?

they pay no attention to political correctness, nor do they worry about having minorities, women and homosexuals to deal with in issues of "human rights"...they simply kill any who oppose them without prejudice.

that's the way russia has been, always will be...NEVER trust russia.

putin is a potiental stalin in the waiting.

IMO...we'd best not engage the russians in a REAL war unless we're prepared to pull out the plug and stay to the finish. i believe the American people will not stand for what it will take to win a war against russia. 'nam, iraq and afghanistan will have been a 'walk in the park' compared to an engagement of russia.

our congress has not allowed the US to win a war since the end of WWII and the American people will not stand for an engagegment that lasts more than two weeks...there were close to half the casulaties we have had in iraq inflicted in georgia in ONE DAY...the russians nearly destroyed the georgian army in one fell swoop...congress would faint dead away if that happened to us...they'd ,wring their hands, grit their teeth and wonder if it would be offensive to the russians to counterattack...IF there were any troops left to respond with...

here's a thought that sends chills down my spine...let's say we do "get into it" with russia...obama gets elected POTUS...what will happen then? will he immediately draw up a surrender? will we negoiate a peace? will we merge with mexico and canada in an effort to outgun the russians?

once again i've had too much caffiene this a.m. ...

[Old Ironsights]

I'm still a little puzzled here.

Yes, Russia is going too far, but Georgia was the agressor. They invaded a sovereign state (S Osta). Russia came to the aid of S Osta. They should have slapped Georgia's butt and quit at the border - but then, in retrospect, "stoppong at he border" was what we did after Gulf I that led to Gulf II + Iraq.

I you don't want to get yor butt slapped by a superpower then don't go invading your neighbors.

[El Mac]

they are NOT afraid to respond with force, to force, in aggression or defense and do what it takes to win...can we say the same?

For our military - absolutely. For our panty waste politicians/media/MTV generation thumb suckers - absolutely not.

they pay no attention to political correctness, nor do they worry about having minorities, women and homosexuals to deal with in issues of "human rights"...they simply kill any who oppose them without prejudice.

Good for them. We should take a lesson.

i believe the American people will not stand for what it will take to win a war against russia.

I believe 'elements' of the American people will not stand for what it will take to win a war against Russia.

...there were close to half the casulaties we have had in iraq inflicted in georgia in ONE DAY...

So much for their vaunted fighting abilities. We did in Afghanistan in about 3 weeks what they could not do in what? 3 years?

obama gets elected POTUS...what will happen then?

Insert thumb, provide copious amount of orally applied vacuum.

will he immediately draw up a surrender? will we negoiate a peace? will we merge with mexico and canada in an effort to outgun the russians?

Who can predict a fool?

[RSY]

Well, you had me on the verge of agreement, OSOK. Until you cited the "Austin Chronicle," that is. Talk about bias and a credibility gap. Unless you're looking for the best "green" candidate to vote for, or need to place a classified ad for a new drummer in your band, it ain't of much use. Not to mention, that article is almost seven years old. Does Gobayev still even work there?

Scott

[O.S.O.K.]

I'm still a little puzzled here.

Yes, Russia is going too far, but Georgia was the agressor. They invaded a sovereign state (S Osta). Russia came to the aid of S Osta. They should have slapped Georgia's butt and quit at the border - but then, in retrospect, "stoppong at he border" was what we did after Gulf I that led to Gulf II + Iraq.

I you don't want to get yor butt slapped by a superpower then don't go invading your neighbors.

Actually, that's not the deal.

In a nutshell, South Ostatia (sp) is not a sovereign country or anything else - they've been handling their own affairs, yes, but they are actually part of Georgia which is a recongnized soverign country. The Russians have been encouraging the SO's in various ways to revolt. Georgia made a move to bring SO under their control knowing full well that Russia was staged just the other side of the border - and that they had 150 US military advisors in country.... Russia then attacked in response to the Georgian move.

[O.S.O.K.]

Well, you had me on the verge of agreement, OSOK. Until you cited the "Austin Chronicle," that is. Talk about bias and a credibility gap. Unless you're looking for the best "green" candidate to vote for, or need to place a classified ad for a new drummer in your band, it ain't of much use. Not to mention, that article is almost seven years old. Does Gobayev still even work there?

Scott

I know that the Chronical is a lib rag - but it did cite some interesting facts showing the effect that their Philipine analysis had on actual events - a pure manipulation. I don't know if Gobayev works there or not - thought that was more current. And then, I found that he spend 27 years in the FBI - which kind of counters what I was asking ahead of that....

And I do hope you didn't take my response to the analysis/article as being directed at you in any way shape or form - you were just supplying information - just like my posting of the news article following.

I should have stated that in my first reply to that... sorry.

I read that analysis and it just wrankled me. It is very condenscending towards our mililtary and intellegence community IMHO.

I sure hope that it isn't true! I am by no means an expert on geopolitics - just couldn't believe what I was reading there.

[Old Ironsights]

I'm still a little puzzled here.

Yes, Russia is going too far, but Georgia was the agressor. They invaded a sovereign state (S Osta). Russia came to the aid of S Osta. They should have slapped Georgia's butt and quit at the border - but then, in retrospect, "stoppong at he border" was what we did after Gulf I that led to Gulf II + Iraq.

I you don't want to get yor butt slapped by a superpower then don't go invading your neighbors.

Actually, that's not the deal.

In a nutshell, South Ostatia (sp) is not a sovereign country or anything else - they've been handling their own affairs, yes, but they are actually part of Georgia which is a recongnized soverign country. The Russians have been encouraging the SO's in various ways to revolt. Georgia made a move to bring SO under their control knowing full well that Russia was staged just the other side of the border - and that they had 150 US military advisors in country.... Russia then attacked in response to the Georgian move.

Why does the Georgian move remind me of somthing Lincoln did... ?

I'm not supporting Russia here specifically, but I have a warm place in my heart for secessionists...

[RSY]

And I do hope you didn't take my response to the analysis/article as being directed at you in any way shape or form - you were just supplying information - just like my posting of the news article following.

No, not in the least. However, I must plead guilty to being a fan of Dr. Friedman and his crew. They are not always spot-on, but they provide some pretty good insight usually. Hey, intelligence is a tough business. The intelligence community, at large, has a terrible record of predictive accuracy. It's just hard to do.

One of my top books of the last 5 years is Friedman's "America's Secret War." Pick up a copy, it's a great read. It really opened my eyes to the fact that we the public don't even have a fraction of the information (as supplied by the media) required to make sense of these goings-on.

RSY

[tomtex]

I support Georgia--Maj CT Lester US Army SF

[Old Time Hunter]

Wonder how 'ole Ronald Reagan would've handled this situation?

[Old Ironsights]

I support Georgia--Maj CT Lester US Army SF

Why? I can understand NOT supporting Russia, but why support the Georgians over South Ossetia?

Follow the logic:
South Ossetia wants to be independent of Georgia.
Georgia doesn't want the uppity province to break away so they went in to kick some butt.
But South Ossetia brought in the Russians to help kick/keep the Georgians out... just like we asked the French to help us throw out the British in OUR bid for independence.

It's not our fight - especially not on the side of the agressor.

They made their bed - both the South Ossetians who had the bad idea to trust the Russians AND the Georgians who thought they could blythely go in ad fight the Russians without consequence... and come crying to Unka Sugar the minute they got their butts handed to them.

Rule of thumb: Don't kick at the guard dog - he might break the chain.

If they had just let Ossetia choose their own fate then none of this would have happened.

[El Mac]

I support Georgia--Maj CT Lester US Army SF

Why? I can understand NOT supporting Russia, but why support the Georgians over South Ossetia?

Because they fought alongside us in our Iraq venure. Kinda like a bar fight. You back your bud's play. (And for all we know this may have been a coordinated event...)