I smell a rat!

[RIHMFIRE]

well boys...i think we are are being hood winked...
I get a lot of email from distributors and always check to see if they
have any ammo wise....So how long has it been since the distributors ran out...
november... december....

Now, in my brief expeience with an ammo company...I know it does not take long
to manufacture and ship a truckload of ammo..80000 pounds of ammo..
especially 22...

22 ammo is manufactured buy a seperate machine...not related to any centerfire
ammo except when it gets to the packaging stage...and these machines can spit
out the ammo...So where is it...We keep hearing they are running night and day.
So, wheres the ammo????....military and the LEOs dont use 22...wheres the ammo?

Same goes for the centerfire ammo...even with HLS, LEO and military contracts
the numbers are nowhere near the ammo that civilians use....no way...

It is my contension the idiot in chief has his foot on the neck of the ammo companies
causing the "Not in Stock era"...and...in time the civilian will shoot what they have...
and eventually run out...and then...who knows what will happen....
yep...i smell a rat...

the other side is the comodities market for metals.....is it all going to china?...no
we have heard the stories about primers...all going to contracts first...

what do you think?

[buckeyeshooter]

I bought a 22 hornet about 15 years ago. Specifically so I could have a centerfire small game round like the rimfire that I can cast for and load economically.
That said, my guess is in these times the companies that make ammo are making the product that they make the best money on. If the make .02 on .223 and .002 on rimfire, that explains why the manpower is on the centerfire line instead of the rimfire line.
It sounds like raws and manpower are the limiting units in production not the equipment. You can't be a rat if you are trying to keep the company making money and the stockholders happy.

[J Miller]

RIHMFIRE,

I think I tend to agree with you to an extent. Something other than supply and demand is going on here.

And yes I am convinced that we the (sh)people are getting screwed ... big time.

Joe

[Mescalero]

I don't see the sinister in this.
The shooting happened,
The anti's got a LOT of free air time,
as a result of that dispicable display ( trying to capitalize ) on a tragedy,
a panic ensued, and buying of all kinds followed.
All large manufacturing facilties have what is known as a production planner, he/she/they plan production runs months in advance, as they must make the most use of machinery, materials workforce, packing,shipping, transportation.
The run on everything was an unforseen event, catching everyone unprepared.
The gun show reports from forum members show a slow return to normalcy.
I grew up on the border, and I have never seen so many LEO's assigned to border security in my life.
All these people MUST qualify with service weapons a lot of people shooting a lot of bullets means a lot of bullets.
I urge patience, and coolheaded,coherent thought.

[BigSky56]

CCI makes 4 million rds of rimfire per day according to their own website I think this going the way of the sugar and coffee hooray we had years ago. Looking at wholesalers websites most ammo & most of the popular rimfire guns are out of stock. danny

speaking of coffee thats going up the farmers in So. Amer are on strike.

[samb]

Danny,
Thanks for the heads up, will go grab some coffee in the am. It was 60F here today, saw a bunch of Elk out in Canmore yesterday.
Sam

[gak]

To the OP's point, it does make you wonder. Several random-time checks, including on-or-just after suoposed "delivery day," local big box outdoors store shows nothing but bare shelves--ammo and guns...It's not like they get a load in and some un-named mystery batch of customers cleans it all out before you get there--every time, without exception? If there's some flow, constant "filling backorders," etc, where's it going? I have heard--but not seen except a few odd instances--much of the "slowly returning to normal" being spoken of.

[Hawkeye2]

"It's not like they get a load in and some un-named mystery batch of customers cleans it all out before you get there--every time, without exception?"

Actually that is exactly what happens at our local Wally World. There is a small group (3-5) individuals with a lot of disposable income who know when the ammo comes in and when they start to stock the shelves which is usually about 5:00-7:00 AM. They are there and as soon as the first ammo hits Sporting Goods it's; "Do you have any more of that in back?.............I'll take it all."

I don't see a conspiracy regarding .22 rimfire, I believe it is mostly supply and demand. Manufactures will divert resources to produce what sells best and if you can turn out a product that has a guaranteed sales of 100% with no warehousing (this includes contract sales) that is where the maximum profit is . Runs of seasonal ammo and even moderate sellers will suffer as a result. I also believe the demand for .22 is at a high. Many fear some serious legislation coming down and are stockpiling anything that will shoot and also some are looking at the .22 as an alternative self defense round. With the cases empty any pistol begins to look good. I know a few individuals who are buying any .22 ammo they see even though they had enough on hand before this began to last several months given the amount they shoot. Scarcity breeds a need to buy?

[piller]

Our local Wally Worlds have a limit of 3 boxes per person, one size or mix & match. Judging by the size of the line, it doesn't appear as if it is only a few getting it all.

[Mescalero]

Other than the greedy acts of a minority, like Hawkeye describes; I do not see any real evil in this.
Time, I think; will alter the crisis.

[J Miller]

Other than the greedy acts of a minority, like Hawkeye describes; I do not see any real evil in this.
Time, I think; will alter the crisis.

Or exacerbate it.

Joe

[sore shoulder]

I actually left 3 50 round boxes of .22 on the shelf at Walmart last week. There was also some pistol ammo. I got enough and my hope was that whoever got it actually needs it, not just hoarding or reselling. A few weeks back I talked to a guy at the ammo shelf who was waiting for the truck to unload to see if it had .22. Told him I just sold some for $50 brick and heard a brick was going for $100 at the gun show. He said "I would pay that". At that point I felt really sorry for that guy, and wished I had another box to sell him at my price of $50. I would throw my .22 in the trash can before paying $100 for 500 rounds.

As to the scarcity, I think a lot of it is just people buying up anything they see just because. I read of people buying ammo for guns they don't even have. I don't necessarily think that's bad, it's just a sign of how fearful people are. And I don't think it's being overly paranoid either. It's a very reasonable reaction to how things are going right now. I do believe it will subside in a few months as the news tapers off to other things, people run out of money and life as usual carries on.

[Mescalero]

That is almost too unreal to believe, but it seems to be the state of the union right now.

[cas]

People are buying stuff not be because they need it, but just because its there. Instead of buying the one box they normally would when they do need it, they're buying 3-4-5 instead. They can't possibly keep up.

[Grizz]

It's funny to me to read statements about how it's all gonna return to normal pretty soon, or ideas to that effect. We have a completely illigitimate government in the black house, a cadre of traitors dedicated to the proposition that America shall be destroyed and subjected. They are aided and abetted by the crooked and corrupt judiciary that is running interference for the traitors and inhibiting and denying the patriots. They are aided and abetted by the traitors in the "news media" who are deluded and willing propagandists for the treasonous overclass.

The traitors are abetted by every law enforcement agency at their disposal, and the military that they are training for urban warfare against us. They have drones in the sky everywhere, and more coming every day, and have expressed their intention to arm them and use them against us. They have cameras everywhere and they record and track our whereabouts and movements. They monitor everything we say and write, including this post and this topic on this forum. And they keep all of this "evidence" inside a huge mountain cave full of huge super computers. They monitor what exactly we do with our money. WHAT IS NORMAL ABOUT THAT?

They have at least 4 more years to consolidate their gains. What "normal" is that gonna devolve to?

Time to read the tea leaves or whatever we rely on for anticipating the future.

I only shoot my pellet guns now to maintain muscle memory and won't waste any ammo on "practice", it's way too valuable for that.

[RIHMFIRE]

ok...if CCI is making 4 million rounds of 22 a day...
and lets say the other major mfrs are doing the same..win, rem, and fed...
thats 16 mil a day x 5 days a week...x 16 weeks (since late last november)
when the bs started....
thats 1,280,000,000 rnds..

where are they?

remember the 22 is the most popular ammo..
and has no relationship to the mfrg of centerfire ammo...
except labor....keeping the hoppers filled with the 3 components...
and changing the settings to acommodate the different types of 22s...

[Chuck 100 yd]

I believe current production is all going to fill back orders that the hoarders have made.
Remember the last two primer shortages and how long it took to get back to anything resembling normal?
Maybe the next time this stuff is available one should lay in a supply that will allow some leeway in case of future shortages that will surely come. That is what I did.

[Mescalero]

I just don't buy the doom & gloom.
But I speak from a position of comfort.

[cas]

Lets look at it this way… Take 4 million rounds and dived that by 3616 Wal-Mart stores alone.
That comes to a two bricks per store per day.

Now divide it by Cabelas, Dick's Sporting goods, Big 5, Bass Pro, Sports Authority, Gander Mountain and hundreds of other chain stores and their thousands of stores, thousands of independent gun shops, dozens of mail order places…


"remember the 22 is the most popular ammo..
and has no relationship to the mfrg of centerfire ammo...
except labor....keeping the hoppers filled with the 3 components…"

And packaging them and shipping them. The ability to make 4 million rounds a day don't mean much if you can't get them out of the factory and into the stores. Maybe they're running 24 hours a day making bullets, say three times as many as usual. Can the company that prints the boxes meet the demands of three times as many as usual? The company that provides the cardboard for the boxes? Three times as many truckloads, in what trucks. It's like stacking tolerances, all small, all adding up.

[MrMurphy]

I've also heard that Glock is working on a .22 and bought a million .22 LR for testing.

No verification, but with everything else going on, that would put a sizable dent in the ammo sales.

[Charles]

I do not support, do not like and am not a fan of any kind of the current administration...BUT...I don't think there is anything going on with the 22 LR ammo situation other than mind numbing irrational panic on behalf of many people.

There is a tremendous backlog of orders, but ammo is being shipped in limited quantities for public sale, but it is going faster than spit on a hot griddle. If you are not there when the doors open the day it is on the shelves, it will be gone in ten minutes.

This panic will not end very soon. It won't end until the Congress and various states have done whatever they are going to do with the current glut of anti-gun legislation. As long as those issues are unsettled, the panic buying will continue. Once these issues are settled, the process of returning to the new normal will begin, but it may take a year or more for than to take place.

So, I think things will be pretty much as they are now for 1 to 3 years. I shoot in a weekly 22 handgun falling plate match and before the season begins, I buy enough ammo for the entire season. So I am good to go for the next 12 to 14 weeks and then we will be through until next fall. If ammo isn't available by then I just won't shoot.

I have more than enough primers, powder, gas checks and lead for my centerfire rifles and handguns to last me the rest of my life. Of course, in that regard, it helps to be 70 years old.

[GoatGuy]

It wouldn't surprise me that there are folks OVERstocking up on ammo 'cause they believe a handful of .22 cartridges might make good barter items for a few cans of beans, or chili, tuna, sardines, ...or maybe some coffee, a pair of shoes, pocket knife, feminine hygiene products, aspirin, pet food, etc. Relatively inexpensive, portable in small quantities and sure to be even more scarce in the event of an emergency. Lots of folks out there sincerely believe our economy could head into the dumper, and stuff to barter might be a good thing to have on hand.

Other than that, there are always plenty of vultures out there who take advantage of the scarcity of items others want/need, and scheme to make a fat living buying now and hugely inflating prices on such commodities for resale.

[Charles]

Goatguy...This current political fool and foolishness we have in Washington and the uncertain financial future of this country has really given a boost to the "prepper" folks. They are increasing in numbers at a large rate. They are also soaking up 22 LR ammo for their Armageddon stash.

[Grizz]

Goatguy,

I'm that guy and I take exception to your term overstocking. What the help does that mean.

Are you overstocking if you put 20 gallons of gas in the tank instead of 10?

Are you overstocking if you buy 10 pounds of rice, or 100, rather than 1?

Are you overstocking and greedy if you have 100$ left over between paychecks and you KEEP IT?

Do you think that someone else, say Doc, should decide what you can do with that 100$?

I have extra rice that I can't consume in one day, or week, or month, or longer.

I have extra beans, ditto ditto ditto.

And I have extra ammo, ditto ditto ditto.

What I do with the leftover 100$ is my business and only my business.

And if you want to take your 100$ and buy ammo and sell it for 300$ or 20$ is none of my business. I'm all for it.

I'm the guy who thinks .22 ammo may be someday worth far more than a few dollars and I have been saying it for years. Shortages are normal parts of the cycle of life. Planning to deal with some of them is good thinking and good planning, not greed. Panic buying is also part of the cycle of life, as is panic selling. In this cycle 22 ammo is monetized. That's just how the gurdy turns.

[GoatGuy]

Grizz, chill dude! You're among friends.

[Grizz]

Grizz, chill dude! You're among friends.

I trust I am. I also trust that there are far more enemies lurking than we give credit for. It is for them that I expound certain things..

[olyinaz]

"It's not like they get a load in and some un-named mystery batch of customers cleans it all out before you get there--every time, without exception?"

Actually that is exactly what happens at our local Wally World. There is a small group (3-5) individuals with a lot of disposable income who know when the ammo comes in and when they start to stock the shelves which is usually about 5:00-7:00 AM. They are there and as soon as the first ammo hits Sporting Goods it's; "Do you have any more of that in back?.............I'll take it all."

Same here. It's a group of retirees and several local small gun shop owners - same guys every time. I don't need anything so I'm not buying, but I've seen these turkeys in action when I pass by just to check on stocks.

I find it amazing that our ammo supply chain in this country can be completely derailed by so few people, but I guess it makes sense if you think about it. Chaps my hide.

[Modoc ED]

A couple/three/four years ago during the last ammo panic, the same thoughts and ideas were posted that are posted in this thread.

The lesson from that period should have been - "Stock Up and Stay Stocked Up". Many of us did.

[Mescalero]

Yup!